NCAA Tournament - Regionals Predictions


Each regional is simulated 100,000 times to determine the probability of each team winning the regional.
National Seed in parentheses
* if necessary

Fayetteville

Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4*
(1) Arkansas (3-1) 54.7% 63.7% 91.4% 58.0%
Nebraska (3-2) 17.7% 28.7% 7.8% 42.0%
Northeastern (0-2) 24.5% 7.5% --- ---
NJIT (1-2) 3.1% 0.2% 0.8% ---

Austin

Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4*
(2) Texas (3-0) 64.9% 70.9% 86.9%
Arizona State (1-2) 6.2% 16.0% 1.4% ---
Fairfield (2-2) 28.9% 13.2% 11.7% ---
Southern (0-2) 0.1% 0.0% --- ---

Ruston

Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4*
(16) Louisiana Tech (2-2) 51.4% 60.8% 14.4% ---
North Carolina State (3-0) 26.1% 34.6% 79.6%
Alabama (1-2) 14.0% 2.8% 6.1% ---
Rider (0-2) 8.5% 0.8% --- ---

Gainesville

Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4*
(15) Florida (0-2) 47.9% 13.6% --- ---
Miami (FL) (1-2) 25.0% 52.0% 18.8% ---
South Alabama (3-2) 11.2% 2.8% 7.4% 46.0%
South Florida (3-1) 15.9% 31.6% 73.9% 54.0%

Stanford

Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4*
(9) Stanford (3-1) 43.1% 52.8% 86.0% 54.0%
UC Irvine (3-2) 31.3% 42.1% 11.6% 46.0%
Nevada (0-2) 16.1% 4.3% --- ---
North Dakota State (1-2) 9.5% 0.9% 2.4% ---

South Bend

Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4*
(10) Notre Dame (3-0) 36.6% 52.3% 82.7%
Connecticut (1-2) 23.2% 38.1% 6.8% ---
Michigan (0-2) 13.4% 3.4% --- ---
Central Michigan (2-2) 26.8% 6.2% 10.5% ---

Lubbock

Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4*
(8) Texas Tech (3-0) 53.0% 80.3% 87.1%
UCLA (2-2) 35.3% 8.7% 11.4% ---
North Carolina (1-2) 5.0% 9.3% 1.5% ---
Army (0-2) 6.8% 1.6% --- ---

Starkville

Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4*
(7) Mississippi State (3-0) 43.8% 53.3% 82.3%
VCU (1-2) 22.9% 39.6% 7.0% ---
Campbell (2-1) 27.2% 6.7% 10.7% ---
Samford (0-2) 6.1% 0.5% --- ---

Tucson

Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4*
(5) Arizona (3-0) 48.4% 68.5% 86.2%
Oklahoma State (1-2) 23.0% 5.4% 6.9% ---
UC Santa Barbara (2-2) 20.0% 24.9% 6.9% ---
Grand Canyon (0-2) 8.5% 1.2% --- ---

Fort Worth

Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4*
(6) TCU (1-2) 54.3% 62.4% 23.9% ---
Oregon State (3-2) 11.6% 2.5% 3.7% 42.0%
Dallas Baptist (3-1) 30.0% 34.8% 72.4% 58.0%
McNeese (0-2) 4.1% 0.3% --- ---

Oxford

Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4*
(12) Ole Miss (3-1) 51.3% 69.0% 86.4% 54.0%
Southern Miss (3-2) 22.5% 4.9% 6.8% 46.0%
Florida State (1-2) 21.4% 25.5% 6.8% ---
Southeast Missouri (0-2) 4.8% 0.5% --- ---

Columbia

Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4*
(11) Old Dominion (2-2) 54.4% 59.3% 80.8% 58.0%
South Carolina (1-2) 29.3% 36.8% 14.7% ---
Virginia (4-1) 14.8% 3.7% 4.5% 42.0%
Jacksonville (0-2) 1.5% 0.1% --- ---

Greenville

Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4*
(13) East Carolina (3-0) 66.4% 65.7% 90.1%
Charlotte (1-2) 22.8% 31.7% 6.7% ---
Maryland (2-2) 9.2% 2.5% 3.3% ---
Norfolk State (0-2) 1.6% 0.1% --- ---

Eugene

Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4*
(14) Oregon (2-2) 45.6% 61.5% 85.2% 54.0%
Gonzaga (1-2) 14.8% 29.7% 4.6% ---
LSU (4-1) 18.6% 4.3% 10.2% 46.0%
Central Connecticut (0-2) 21.0% 4.5% --- ---

Nashville

Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4*
(4) Vanderbilt (3-0) 75.5% 78.3% 95.5%
Georgia Tech (2-2) 11.5% 18.9% 1.9% ---
Indiana State (1-2) 11.2% 2.4% 2.7% ---
Presbyterian College (0-2) 1.7% 0.4% --- ---

Knoxville

Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4*
(3) Tennessee (3-0) 42.1% 68.9% 90.3%
Duke (1-2) 14.7% 2.0% 3.2% ---
Liberty (2-2) 19.8% 24.1% 6.5% ---
Wright State (0-2) 23.4% 5.0% --- ---