NCAA Tournament - College World Series Prediction

Each game of the College World Series is simulated 100,000 times to determine the probability of each team advancing to the CWS Championship Series and winning the National Championship.
National Seed in parentheses
* if necessary

CWS Bracket 1

Probability of advancing to CWS Final series

Day 1 Day 3 Day 5 Day 7/8*
(8) Oregon State (1-2) 30.1% 37.5% 11.1% ---
(13) Coastal Carolina (3-0) 41.5% 54.4% 78.8% 81.0%
Louisville (2-2) 18.0% 5.2% 10.1% 19.0%
Arizona (0-2) 10.4% 2.9% --- ---

CWS Bracket 2

Probability of advancing to CWS Final series

Day 2 Day 4 Day 6 Day 7/8*
(3) Arkansas (2-2) 38.8% 13.5% 19.3% 28.3%
(6) LSU (3-0) 24.7% 47.3% 72.5% 71.7%
(15) UCLA (1-2) 24.3% 37.2% 8.2% ---
Murray State (0-2) 12.2% 2.0% --- ---

National Championship

Probability of winning the 2025 National Championship

Initial Updated
LSU 13.7% 75.6%
Coastal Carolina 20.2% 24.4%
Arkansas 23.4% ---
Louisville 7.0% ---
UCLA 12.9% ---
Oregon State 13.3% ---
Murray State 5.6% ---
Arizona 3.9% ---